From 2016 to 2026, 24% of flood insurance claims in New Hanover, Brunswick and Pender counties came from Zone X and other moderate-to-low-risk areas, more than double the 11% share from 1978 to 2015. In the City of Wilmington it was half. A crawl space outside a mapped flood zone is not out of the water's reach.
What 48 years of flood claims show
FEMA publishes every National Flood Insurance Program claim, with the policyholder's identity removed. We pulled all of them for the three counties we cover: 26,951 claims from 1978 to August 2026, paying out about $404 million for buildings and contents.
Each claim records the flood zone the property was rated in. Most come from where you would expect: 63% from the high-risk A and AE zones and 22% from the coastal V and VE zones. The part that has changed is the rest. Zone X (and the older B and C labels) is the area FEMA's maps class as moderate-to-low risk, where flood insurance is not federally required. Its share of claims has more than doubled.
Share of NFIP flood claims in New Hanover, Brunswick and Pender counties that came from Zone X, B or C — outside the high-risk A and V zones.
About one claim in nine came from outside the mapped high-risk zones.
Nearly one in four.
$124 million paid across the three counties.
Recorded by FEMA as Tropical Cyclone Eight — half the claims came from outside the zones.
Rain floods outside the zones; surge stays inside them
The storms split cleanly. Hurricane Matthew in 2016 and Isaias in 2020 drew 5% and 2% of their claims from Zone X, and Wrightsville Beach, on its barrier island, has drawn 1 of its 386 claims in 2016–2026 from outside the mapped zones. When the water comes in from the ocean, the flood maps have it about right.
Florence was different: 27% of its claims came from outside the zones. The September 2024 storm, which flooded Carolina Beach, Kure Beach and Southport, reached 50%. Both were above all rain storms — water rising from saturated ground and running off streets rather than surge from the ocean — and rain does not follow the lines on a flood map.
Those claims are not small, either. From 2016 to 2026 the median building payment on a Zone X claim has been $20,636, against $8,587 in the A zones. The data records what was paid, not why, but it is a reason not to read Zone X as "no flood risk".
Town by town, 2016–2026
FEMA's community field shows how uneven it is. The share of each community's claims from 2016 to 2026 that came from Zone X:
- Southport — 55% of 150 claims
- City of Wilmington — 50% of 357 claims
- Leland — 42% of 72 claims
- Unincorporated New Hanover County (Castle Hayne, Ogden, Murraysville and the rest outside the towns) — 40% of 723 claims, up from 25% all-time
- Unincorporated Brunswick County — 30% of 483 claims
- Unincorporated Pender County, including Hampstead — 27% of 773 claims
- Carolina Beach — 18.5% of 509 claims, up from 7% all-time
- Wrightsville Beach — 0.3% of 386 claims
What it means for a crawl space
In an A or V zone, a crawl space that sits below base flood elevation is an enclosure, and the NFIP requires flood openings: one square inch of net opening per square foot of enclosed area, at least two openings, on different walls. Our flood vent requirements guide has the full rule, and that is the work our flood vent installation service covers.
In Zone X, flood openings are not required. The claims above show what does happen there: water arrives from saturated ground and runoff and collects around and under the house. That is a drainage problem before it is a flood-vent one. Grading that sheds water away from the foundation, crawl space drainage and a sump pump are the measures that answer it, and our standing water guide covers what to do once it is already down there.
If you are encapsulating, the zone matters for the design. In an A or V zone the liner must not cover the flood openings, and materials below base flood elevation should be flood-damage-resistant. In Zone X there is no opening requirement, but a crawl space that has flooded once is worth sealing with that history in mind.
How to check your own flood zone
North Carolina publishes its official flood maps through the state's Flood Risk Information System. Search your address and it shows the zone and, where one is mapped, the base flood elevation. FEMA's Flood Map Service Center has the same maps in FEMA's format. If the house has an elevation certificate, the zone and the elevations are on it.
A zone tells you what the map expects, not what has happened. If you are buying, ask the seller whether the house has ever had flood damage or a flood claim, and look at the crawl space itself for water lines, silt and rusted fasteners before you rely on the map.
The bottom line
From 2016 to 2026, one Wilmington-area flood claim in four has come from outside the high-risk zones, and in the City of Wilmington it is one in two. Check your zone, and treat Zone X as lower risk, not no risk — especially for a crawl space that already takes on water in heavy rain.
For a number against your own crawl space, use the cost estimator, or call (910) 444-2738 and we will come and measure it.